BRS: Marta Coll "Predicting marine species distributions: Complementarity of food-web and Bayesian hierarchical modelling approaches"

host: Mary O'Connor, cookies provided by Patrick T. and Keila S.

abstract: The spatial prediction of species distributions from survey data is a significant component of spatial planning and the ecosystem-based management approach to marine resources. Statistical analysis of species occurrences and their relationships with associated environmental factors is used to predict how likely a species is to occur in unsampled locations as well as future conditions. However, it is known that environmental factors alone may not be sufficient to account for species distribution. Other ecological processes including species interactions (such as competition and predation), and the impact of human activities (such as fisheries), may affect the spatial arrangement of a species. Novel techniques have been developed to take a more holistic approach to estimating species distributions, such as Bayesian Hierarchical Species Distribution model and mechanistic food-web models using the new Ecospace Habitat Foraging Capacity model. Here I will explain how we are using both species distribution and spatial food-web models to predict the distribution of species in the Mediterranean Sea. I will explore the complementarity of both approaches, comparing results of food-web models previously informed with species distribution modelling results, aside from their applicability as independent techniques. I will present advantages, limitations and future developments of this study.