BRS Marty Krkosek: Nonlinear fluctuations, portfolio effects, and a disease trap for Pacific salmon

host: Kayla King 

Title talk: Nonlinear fluctuations, portfolio effects, and a disease trap for Pacific salmon

Abstract: In this talk, I will discuss ideas of nonlinear population dynamics and how they pertain to understanding fluctuations of marine fish,  portfolio effects in Pacific salmon, and the creation of a disease trap for salmon in British Columbia. Analysis of the RAM Legacy Database using empirical dynamic modelling indicates that nonlinearity is ubiquitous to marine fish population fluctuations where it is elevated by temperature variability and shaped by life history traits. Application of similar methods to sockeye salmon from the Fraser River and Bristol Bay shows that these stock complexes each have unique attractors, around which populations orbit asynchronously to produce the variance dampening consequence of portfolio effects in these stocks. For salmon farming and fisheries in British Columbia, a disease trap is created due to bistability from bioeconomic feedbacks that involve infectious disease interactions between wild and farmed salmon in the ocean and incentivization of aquaculture growth through economic opportunity and policy change. 

Short biography: